Op-Ed: Crises strengthen Europe

The Western world as we have known it since 1945 has undergone dramatic changes in recent weeks. For decades, the United States served as the guarantor of unparalleled prosperity—a role that came at a significant cost. NATO's total spending last year was $485 billion, with the United States contributing nearly 70% of that amount. At the same time, America has been the largest contributor to international development aid, providing $55.3 billion to poorer nations in 2023 alone. While these expenditures were substantial, they also brought considerable benefits to the United States, fostering stability and opening markets for American goods and services.

In 2025, however, we are witnessing a starkly different reality. President Trump has abruptly shut down USAID, threatened to cut military aid to Ukraine, cast doubt on U.S. participation in NATO, and imposed tariffs that have triggered global trade wars. His administration claims that the United States has been exploited by its trading partners and that Europeans have been free riders when it comes to defending their own continent.

For many, these developments signal the end of 80 years of peace and prosperity in Europe. Yet I remain cautiously optimistic. The European Union has the potential to play a decisive role in shaping its future—provided its member states can act collectively and speak with one voice. Often they have not done that. Encouragingly, there are signs that this time may indeed be different. EU countries have already agreed to allocate €800 billion for defense spending over the next decade. Additionally, European nations both inside and outside the EU are significantly increasing their individual defense budgets.

This shift did not happen overnight. Jens Stoltenberg called for increased defense spending early in his tenure as NATO Secretary General. However, it was only when Donald Trump made explicit threats during his first term as president that European nations began taking these warnings seriously. Now, with Trump’s return to power and his unpredictable policies creating uncertainty across the globe, Europe is once again being forced to take matters into its own hands.

Trump’s actions have created chaos both at home and abroad. He has openly courted Vladimir Putin while pressuring Ukraine to accept Russian demands for peace negotiations by withdrawing military support. This raises troubling questions about whether Europe could count on U.S. assistance in a future conflict with Russia. Commentator David Brooks put it bluntly in The New York Times: “NATO is over.” While not everyone agrees with this assessment, it is clear that Europe can no longer take American military support for granted.

In the economic sphere, Trump’s trade war with the EU has caused widespread disruption. The shock is particularly acute because these developments have unfolded so rapidly—within just a few weeks. Yet here lies my cautious optimism: history shows us that many of Europe’s most significant advances have occurred during times of crisis.

Take the debt crisis of 2009–2015 as an example. In response to that existential challenge, the EU established the European Stability Mechanism and implemented greater budget coordination measures that stabilized the Eurozone. Similarly, during the migration crisis of 2015–2016, Frontex was strengthened to coordinate European border security, and a common framework for asylum applications was created. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, EU countries accelerated integration in health and fiscal policy while coordinating vaccine production and distribution—ensuring equal access for all member states (and for us here in Norway). On climate issues too, the EU has emerged as a global leader with its European Green Deal aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050. In September last year, former head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, published a 400-page report, ordered by the European Commission, with strategic advice on the EU economy in an uncertain future. Much of this advice is now being followed up.

Now, Europe faces another defining challenge: security and military defense. Vladimir Putin’s aggressive pursuit of rebuilding Russia’s sphere of influence poses a direct threat to countries like Poland and the Baltic states. While U.S. guarantees have so far deterred Russian aggression against NATO members, we must confront the reality that such guarantees may no longer be reliable under Trump’s leadership.

Fortunately for Europe, Putin’s ability to project power is limited by his own country’s struggles after three years of war in Ukraine. According to estimates from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia has lost at least 172,000 soldiers killed in action and another 611,000 wounded during this conflict. The country has also lost over 4,300 tanks while grappling with inflation at 10% and central bank interest rates of 21%. By contrast, EU countries collectively spent €326 billion on defense in 2024—more than double Russia’s military budget—and enjoy far greater economic resilience.

Europe has five times Russia’s population and significantly larger industrial capacity. We are more than capable of standing on our own two feet if necessary—but only if we can agree to act together as one unified bloc.

History demonstrates that crises often serve as catalysts for European unity and progress. When circumstances demand it—as they do now—Europe has shown time and again that it can rise to meet even its most daunting challenges.