The US will dominate Europe less
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was clear in his analysis of the newly elected President Donald Trump in 2016. The Washington Times reported on December 16th of that year that Kissinger, after a meeting with Trump, believed that he would introduce a new American foreign policy. "Donald Trump is a phenomenon that other countries have not seen before," Kissinger said, and he believed this could have far-reaching consequences.
Kissinger's analysis is even more apt now. The employees of the US State Department are wondering if incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio will receive the same instructions that the foreign ministers in the Trump 1 government received; to cut more than 1,000 civil service positions in the ministry. There is no indication that Trump has changed his views on foreign policy as he now embarks on his second term as president. The US will withdraw into itself, and the State Department will become less important and may be reduced. Elon Musk has been tasked with reducing public bureaucracy. It could come down hard on the State Department.
For Europe, this means that American support, which began with the Marshall Aid in 1948, and which remained steadfast throughout the Cold War, will now be considerably less. Donald Trump has previously threatened to reduce support for NATO, if not pull the country out of the defence alliance altogether. It may be a reassuring move that incoming Secretary of State Rubio was one of the two who got the Senate to agree that an American withdrawal from NATO would require a two-thirds majority. It is currently unclear which European policy the US will implement. Heads of state in Europe are therefore preparing to take significantly greater responsibility themselves.
Leaders such as Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Marcon of France are now taking steps to prepare for Trump's isolationism. France will increase its defence expenditure by 30 per cent in the period 2024-2030. The German Bundestag created a special fund of 100 billion euros in 2022 to strengthen the defence, after Russia invaded Ukraine. In Norway, the government proposes to increase the defence budget from NOK 19.2 billion to NOK 110.1 billion for 2025. The plan is for defense expenditure to be increased by NOK 600 billion over the next 12 years.
In the late 1980s, both Norway and other European countries reduced their defense budgets significantly. The fall of the Iron Curtain gave a sense of peace and less danger. The money was used for other and good purposes. Now the European defence needs significant rearmament, which will continue for several decades. In the public debate here in Norway, there are now more and more people who believe that the times we are entering give reason to also reassess Norwegian EU membership. I voted for membership in 1994 and have not changed my mind.
Trump's election victory does not only complicate economic policy in Europe. Far-right parties such as Marin Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) in France via Geert Wilders' Freedom Party in the Netherlands to Alternativ für Deutschland under the leadership of Alice Weidel in Germany has long been a source of unrest in European politics. For example, President Macron called for new elections in France earlier this year after the RN won 31.37% of the vote in the French elections to the European Parliament in June. The RN became the largest party, while Macron's coalition Ensemble fell sharply, although it is still the largest. The problem now is that Donald Trump's victory in the US, with his far-right ideology, could act as a vitamin injection for these parties across Europe.
We see the same tendencies in Norway. The Progress Party got 24.2 percent in an opinion poll a few days ago. This made it clearly the largest party in Norway, with the Conservative Party as the second largest party with 20.3 per cent. In a new poll on 12 November, the Progress Party got 22.2% and the Conservatives 20.9%
In the United States, it is not only immigration and the pressure on the border with Mexico that create fear. The working class has been stagnant in terms of wages for more than 50 years. Although wages have risen, purchasing power is roughly the same as in the 1970s, when inflation and other conditions are taken into account. According to the Pew Research Center, the highest-paid 5% of the population earned 248 times as much as the lowest-paid in 2016. In 1989, the difference was 114 times. When Joe Biden and later Kamala Harris argued that the American economy is now doing much better than before, it is in and of itself true. The only problem is that those at the bottom of the pay scale don't notice that much.
They also feel alienated in the Democratic Party, which historically has been the party of workers. Those who now dominate the party are urban people with high education. In her election campaign, Kamala Harris focused a lot on the abortion issue and identity politics. She was supported by students and young professionals characterized by political correctness and a Woke culture.
In the American countryside and in small towns, voters are concerned with completely different issues and ask good and important questions. The problem for these, and for us Europeans in general, is that President Donald Trump represents completely wrong answers.
