Russia is Mordor, yet it must be given decent post-war conditions
For the past fortnight, my soul has shrunk, almost unable to breathe. The lamb went to the wolf, and the world had to watch unbelievable human suffering or risk World War III. And Putin knows it, which is why he is playing this card.
However, I know of no dictator who would settle for a small bite and then calm down. If we back down now, all we have to do is wait for Russia to attack another country until it is a NATO country. And then we will have the same discussion as today all over again. Only more disgracefully.
Pariah for decades
Mordor has awakened and materialized in the East. It is even more terrible than we could have imagined, destroying its own principles. Even if Russia were to end its war operations today and apologize, no free country will want anything to do with Russia for decades to come. Russia cannot win this war - and Putin knows it.
Putin's regime is so unattractive that no democracy wants it voluntarily. Hence the expansionist wars. Russia is not thriving - not economically, and certainly not politically. Nor are the countries Russia has «engaged» in - starting with Georgia, bombing Aleppo, and now Ukraine.
The great myth that Putin is building is that Russia is under threat. Why should NATO want to attack Russia? What would we get out of that? A piece of impoverished land? Both the EU and NATO operate on a voluntary basis on both sides and it is more likely that neither the EU nor NATO wanted to expand much and they still don't want to. It was NATO and the EU that were reticent towards Ukraine, not the other way around. Apropos this; Ukraine had been in NATO and the EU, none of the horrors of today would have happened. Putin only dares to target the weak, those he knows or suspects will not find supporters.
Make no mistake, if Ukraine were to attack Russia and commit the same atrocities on Russian territory as the Russians are doing now (however misguided an idea that is), the world would be on Russia's side and economic sanctions would be directed against Ukraine. No one is against Russia because it starts with an R, but because it has started an unprovoked war and is murdering civilians, including bombing hospitals and maternity wards. As someone said, Russia is pursuing an ideology of defense policy for its expanding empire. And that is simply unacceptable from any side.
In a war, the economy goes silent
In war, not only are the muses silent, but the economy is silent too. Economists, bankers and businessmen have found their courage - and they are fighting an aggressive Russia with full guns, even if it costs a lot. The aim was not to deprive both sides of profits, but to push Russia to the negotiating table. And unfortunately, it was not enough. Now a greater force must step in. We have exhausted all weapons in our economic arsenal - there is only one weapon left: stopping energy imports. And this too will happen in time - either the Russian or the European side will turn off the taps. Either way, it won't change anything about the Russian war. Now the matter is in the hands of politicians, negotiators and generals.
As soon as the conflict moves back onto economic ground, a solution will be found. If only we could buy Ukraine from Russia economically.
The West should draw a clear red line that Russia must not cross over to foreign territory. If it does, there must be a no-fly zone over Ukraine - at least the threat of it. Otherwise, Russia will proceed in its leveling of cities across Ukraine and I see no reason why it should stop there. After all, Putin's same «defensive» logic can be used to attack other, arbitrary countries. Russia's appetite grows with the food. Only the threat of declaring a no-fly zone will force Russia to negotiate. Ukraine is not Russian territory, so I don't know why we treat it that way. No matter how I look at it, helping Ukraine is not an attack on Russia.
It's a lost war
Putin has already lost the war. There is no conceivable way he can come out of it as a winner. But he can take more countries, indeed the whole world, down with him into defeat. We must already be looking for a way to help Russia when it lays down its arms. It is too tempting and too easy to insult Russia, and no one wants to see its people die. Russia's greatest enemy is not the West, not NATO, and certainly not Ukraine, but Putin and his regime.
We have learned too much from the world wars to want to trample our enemies into the ground and destroy them economically. Much less attack anyone. Russia must be offered an attractive post-war economic program that will eventually get the country back on its feet.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version). It was first published in the Czech Daily Hospodářské noviny on March 11th, 2022, and then in the Norwegian daily Verdens Gang on March 16th, 2022.
