The Future Belongs to Those Who Believe in It

49 percent of the Oil Fund is invested in the USA. Only 27 percent is invested in Europe. What if Trump someday decides to confiscate the Oil Fund's assets in the USA, and we end up financing our own economic downfall?

By Nicolai Strøm-Olsen, leader of Startup Migrants, and Hermund Haaland, leader of the think tank Zebr Institute

Dystopian? Yes. Likely? Hardly. Completely unthinkable? Unfortunately not, with Trump at the helm in Washington. After all, not many believed Russia would actually attack Ukraine. No one foresaw Donald Trump threatening Denmark to take Greenland or proposing to incorporate Canada into the USA. Nor did many think he would demand that five percent of Europe's GDP should go to defense.

What we now know is that this has led to a great deal of uncertainty in Europe. Our assertion is that Norway and Europe are the best students in the class because we believe in a rules-based world. We believe an important reason why Europeans are obsessed with Donald Trump is that he shows us that a completely different way of governing the world is unfortunately possible. That's where we're heading, at full speed. It's now clear that we don't have cards to play against him. The rules we're used to can be broken.

For Norwegians and Europeans, it's almost impossible to imagine a world governed differently than the one we've grown up in. To the extent we can see it, it's like a distant climate dystopia, where we might as well all give up - because we're all going to die around 2060 anyway.

The problem now is that Norway and Europe can't wake up from their slumber. We can't prepare for a world where rules are weakened. Unfortunately, it looks like today's rules of the game are seriously becoming: Either you change the world, or the world changes you. And although Trump's behavior now forces us to think anew, it doesn't necessarily mean that in the long run we should stop working for a more rule-based order, and for strengthening trust between countries globally.

Where can we change the world - as it is today?
The first part of this journey involves realizing that the unlikely can happen. Who knows if Donald Trump and Xi might decide it's unfortunate that another state, through an oil fund, owns so much of their national business sector. And that they then decide to confiscate it. Against this, Europeans can always claim that it would violate international law. When it comes down to it, that might not help much.

The second part is to figure out where we can help change the world. The good news is that we can contribute, not just for our own sake, but also for Europe. A strengthened Europe will be in Norway's interest.

In fact, Norway's oil wealth can help build an alternative to the US and China's technology dominance. Europe has several of the world's best universities. The Dragi report says that Europe can become a leader in Deep-tech, that is, robotics, nanotechnology, and defense technology. German universities and startups like Proxima Fusion Home are world leaders in achieving fusion energy. What's slowing growth in Europe is lack of money, and what we call commercialization of research.

Norway has money - and Europe is gradually getting better at commercialization.

The future belongs to those who believe in it
Novo Nordisk is the world's most valuable company, and the vaccine company Biontech (yes, the ones with the corona vaccine) has come a long way in developing a vaccine against stomach cancer. At the same time, new companies like Helsing are emerging, world leaders in AI for drones to protect democracy, and Isar Aerospace, which 3D prints rockets to compete with Space X. Europe can't be dependent on Elon Musk. They're testing the technology on Andøya in Norway. Imagine if these companies had access to capital on the same scale as Trump's friends Musk and Zuckerberg. Europe has done it before with Airbus.

In Europe, some countries are already starting to wake up. In Italy, a fund of 1 billion euros has been created to invest in AI. In Germany, the pension fund will invest 12 billion euros in new technology companies. According to Jon Kåre Stene, Oda founder and now venture investor in Skyfall AS, the Oil Fund currently invests less than one percent in what the Draghi report calls for.

Norway has a unique opportunity to build a capital bridge for Europe into new technology. This would mean putting the Oil Fund's muscles into building the world's most innovative economy in Europe. It will likely bring along private investments and have a positive signaling effect for others, both private and national investments.

It will also give Norway some political influence. A small country on the outskirts of Europe can be part of rewriting the continent's rules through investments. It's also conceivable that Trump would worry if Norway's Oil Fund withdraws 9,044,153,482,187 from the American economy. Maybe that's exactly how there will be fewer tariff barriers and tariffs, and that his negotiating style requires precisely this in return?

Yes, it may mean less return on the fund in the short term, but if the Oil Fund is placed in new European technology that becomes the next big thing that ensures economic growth, it will pay off in the long run. Most importantly, such a restructuring strengthens Norway's most important export markets, which are precisely Europe. Not least, we know that no one will confiscate our money. We write the rules for our own prosperity in the 21st century because we believe in the future.

The text was first published in the Norwegian magazine Minerva, on Feb 9th, 2025.