The world is getting better, not worse.

By Kåre Melhus

Here in Norway, we just elected a new parliament.  Partially as a result of the publication of the UN climate report in August, climate change became a hot topic during the election campaign.  At the same time, we all witnessed devastating floods, droughts, wildfires out of control, and heat waves. Many people are scared, and some politicians say that we are headed for a tipping point, when we are powerless to stop the globe from overheating.

There is no doubt that the temperature is rising and that this is caused by human activity. But the situation is not as bad as the political rhetoric will have us believe.  Much in the world is actually getting better.  Two professors in geophysics and energyphysics at the universities of Bergen and Oslo, Jonny Hesthammer and Sunniva Rose, argued in an article in the Norwegian daily Aftenposten in September, that there is ample cause for optimism: people live longer, get better education, fewer children die in their first year, fewer die because of air pollution and so on.

The Swedish physician and professor of international public health at Karolinska Instituttet, Hans Rosling, published the international bestseller “Factfulness” in 2018.  He summarizes the book in this way: “Ten reasons we´re wrong about the world- and why things are better than you think.” The book points out what is wrong with negative thinking.  One example is the chapter on “The urgency instinct” and “How `Now or Never´ can block our roads and our minds.” 

The same kind of thinking took hold in many aid organizations in the 80´s.  They realized that focusing on poverty-stricken communities and endless photos of malnourished children, discouraged donors and gave them the impression that their efforts did not make much difference.

With all the voices shouting that climate disaster and collapse is rapidly approaching, and that nothing is being done about it, no wonder many are discouraged. But statistics show that the costs related to natural disasters are going down. The period from 1990 to 2019 saw a drop of 90 percent in people dying in natural disasters and a 40 percent drop in people dying in heatwaves.

In terms of what is being done: last year 38 percent of the electricity production in the EU came from renewable sources while 37 percent came from fossil sources. The dependency on fossil fuel went down by 20 percent from 2018 to 2019, according to Eurostat. Germany is leading the way, aiming at an energy production made up of 65 percent renewables in 2030. 

Solar power is the leading source of renewable energy in Europe.  Here in Norway, we have more wind than sunshine, so windmills are being built. The strange thing is that environmental organizations often lead the fight against them. Esthetics seems to be the main point of objection.  Even the windmills installed offshore are offending protesters, who worry about the safety of seagulls and the wellbeing of fish, and feeling unwell at the thought of windmills towering some 115 meters above sea level.

The UN climate panel says we have to emit 45 percent less CO2 in 2030 than we did in 2010. To reach that goal we must produce renewable energy on an increasing scale. If we try to reach the UN goal mainly by cutting down on our consumption of fossil fuel, the result will be less economic activity, and millions of people worldwide, who have been lifted out of poverty, will fall back into it.  Two billion people lived in extreme poverty in 1990.  Today the number is reduced to 700 million, so the stakes are high.

To produce enough energy from renewable sources to keep the economic momentum going is doable and it is happening all around us. The two Norwegian professors mentioned earlier in this article says that the tipping points many are worried about are serious, but unlikely, and will not happen suddenly.  The change will happen over hundreds of years, so that we have time to adapt.

The professors quote the UN climate panel which expect substantially higher standards of living in 2100 than today. They criticize politicians and journalist who describe the future in apocalyptic terms. We are not well served by frightened politicians when crucial decisions are to be made, they write.

It seems to me that by taking the climate warning seriously and making wise and rational decisions, young people of today have reason to look forward to the future, and not fear it.