January 6th: Could it happen again?

As we mark the one-year anniversary for the attack on the US Capitol, a worrying question is: will Trump supporters repeat the violence if their candidate loses in 2024?

In a guest essay in Washington Post, three retired army generals, Paul D. Eaton, Antonio M. Taguba and Steven M. Anderson conclude this way: «We are chilled to our bones at the thought of a coup succeeding next time.» Their worry is the number of military personnel who support Trump, and the possibility that these people organize military involvement in next election. In the generals´ view, this could lead to civil war.

Other commentators are worried about what is happening now, in terms of altering state election laws. According to the Brennan Center at New York University Law School, 19 states have passed 33 laws limiting access to polling stations, prohibiting early voting and mail ballots.  Other laws make it easier for candidates to protest results. In some states the authority of the Secretary of State is diminished regarding elections, or responsibility for aspects of election administration is taken over by highly partisan bodies such as the state legislature themselves of unevenly bipartisan election boards.

Trump supporters are encouraged to seek public office and apply for staff positions in state administrations. We all remember the infamous phone call the defeated Donald Trump made to the Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in which Trump asked him to «find» 11.780 votes.  This was the number of votes Trump needed to turn the defeat in Georgia into victory. Raffensperger stood his ground, but next time the person under pressure might not be so strong or might be happy to contribute to a Trump victory.

I recently heard a local politician in Elisabethtown, Pennsylvania, Kristy Moore telling CNN in an interview that her political opponents seemed motivated for political involvement by their faith in «the big lie» that the election in 2020 was stolen from Trump and from them.

Other CNN clips from the January 6th reporting, as the insurrection happened in Washington, made it clear that the participants firmly believed that Biden had lost and Trump had won. Many of them still believe this, and are engaging in efforts to make sure the steal does not happen again.  The three generals writing in Washington Post and many others are worried that Donald Trump will be the next American president, whether he gets enough votes or not.

A coup in Washington, involving parts of the armed forces will have the most devastating consequences not only for the United States, but for Europe and indeed the whole world. It will be a blow to our democratic system as such and to the traditional role of the US and its leadership role in world affairs.

We remember Trump´s isolationist policy resulting in his withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, negotiated by USA in cooperation with Russia, China, the UK, France, Germany and the EU. Trump also questioned the validity of NATO, and he withdrew from the trade agreement with Asia, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (TPP). When he refused to sign the protocol from the G7 meeting in Canada in 2018, the then German chancellor Angela Merkel famously said that «We Europeans must now take our fate into our own hands.» She thought that the US no longer could be trusted. 

President Joe Biden is trying his best to reverse some of Trump´s disastrous policies both in domestic and foreign policy, but «America First» will undoubtedly be the headline, should Trump, win a second term in 2024.

January 6th is a reminder, not only of what happened a year ago, but also what is at stake in 2024. As I am finishing this article, the New York Times publishes online an opinion piece by former president Jimmy Carter in connection with the anniversary of the insurrection a year ago. His concluding paragraph reads: «Our great nation now teeters on the brink of a widening abyss. Without immediate action, we are at genuine risk of civil conflict and losing our precious democracy. Americans must set aside differences and work together before it is too late.»